There seems to be a ground swell of support in the national media against the Suns winning the Western Conference. Specifically, there are those that believe that the Phoenix Suns will blow their 6 ½ game lead in the west to the Warriors. This is simply not going to happen.
The Suns’ Record
The Phoenix Suns are a league best 48-10 with 24 regular season games remaining. That is good for an .828 winning percentage. As of February 23, 2022, which is after learning of the Chris Paul injury news, FiveThirtyEight projects the Suns to finish the season with a 63-19 record. Which would not only allow the suns to win the West, but also set a franchise record for wins (previously 62 wins done in ’92-’93 and ’04-’05). To put this in perspective, FiveThirtyEight has the two teams chasing the Suns, the Warriors and Grizzlies, finishing with a 55-27 record.
This means that even though the Suns are missing Chris Paul, the Suns have such a massive lead at this point in the schedule, they should still be able to secure the number 1 overall seed with a week or so left in the season. The mindset of the Suns to play hard and win whenever they play has paid dividends for them. This massive lead and projected wins for the Warriors and Grizzlies means that Phoenix only needs about 8-10 more wins to secure the best record in the Western Conference. This is a modest 10-14 record in their final 24 games.
The Suns’ Remaining Schedule
The Suns have one of the easiest remaining schedules left in the NBA this season. They are 25th in terms of strength of schedule for their final 24 games of the season. This includes 2 games apiece against Oklahoma City, Sacramento, and New Orleans. The Suns are showing that they can take care of business against lesser teams. They are 29-4 against teams below .500 on the season. Half of the Suns’ remaining games are against teams with a below .500 winning percentage. With or without Chris Paul, there is no reason why the Phoenix Suns cannot win at least 10 of those 12 games.
The Warriors Have Too Much Ground to Make Up
For all of the reasons why the Suns will win the west, the same can be said for why the Warriors will not. For starters, even if the Suns begin to fade down the stretch and finish the season 12-12, the suns will still finish with a 60-22 record. This means the Warriors would have to go an incredible 19-4 over that same stretch to overtake the number 1 seed in the western Conference.
Additionally, the Warriors also have the 7th most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NBA compared to the Suns’ 25th. They play 11 games against teams above .500 including games against Milwaukee, Miami, Memphis, Utah, Boston, and Phoenix.
With how the Warriors were playing headed into the All-Star break, I do not see why they are receiving this grand support. Golden State lost four of their final 5 games before the All-Star break including 2 losses to teams below .500. Chris Paul absence aside, there is nothing that shows the Warriors have what it takes to go on a historic run to end the regular season and overthrow the suns atop the Western Conference.
Phoenix is Flat Out Good at Basketball
Those who are counting the Suns out in the west with the absence of Chris Paul are simply overlooking the fact that the Suns are fantastic at playing basketball. For starters, the Suns are a perfect 12-0 when they play without Chris Paul (which as noted should be enough wins to secure the top seed in the West).
Not to mention, Devin Booker is a Super Star in this league. Booker is averaging career bests in points per game (25.5) and rebound per game (5.2) and maintain impressive assist numbers (4.5) and shooting percentage (44.6%) as he continues his trend of getting better every year. It is well known that Devin is as fiery of a competitor as they come and he will relish this moment to put the team on his back and keep the team on track until Chris returns.
We cannot forget about the other ballers on the team such as Mikal Bridges who is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and becoming an offensive threat himself both from three-point land and the mid-range. Deandre Ayton is steadily doing his thing as we inch closer and closer to seeing if the playoff Deandre from 2021 will return in 2022. Cam Johnson is 5th in the NBA in three-point percentage (43%) and turning into a great overall scorer and defender in his own right. Plus, the bench of Javale McGee, Cam Payne, Bismack Biyombo, Torey Craig, and Aaron Holiday have more than enough fire power to hold their own.
Phoenix also has the best coaching staff in the league led by Monty Williams. If anyone will figure out how to navigate this final 24 games without Chris Paul, it is Monty and his staff.
Conclusion (AKA Everything is going to be fine)
There should be no doubt that the Phoenix suns are going to finish 1st in the Western Conference. They may not clinch with 2 weeks left in the season, but it would take a collapse of epic proportions coupled with a tremendous run by the Warriors for such a thing to happen. The Suns simply have too much cushion, too easy of a remaining schedule, and too good of a team and coaching staff to caught. The Suns will whether the storm, Chris Paul will come back healthy, and then we can all buckle up for the playoffs.
